2025, Vol. 6, Issue 1, Part B
Forecasting regional level rainfall of West Bengal
Author(s): Upendra Kumar Sahoo and Tirthankar Ghosh
Abstract: Accurate forecasting of Indian Summer Monsoon Rainfall (ISMR) at the district level remains a significant challenge, particularly in India. This study focuses on district-level ISMR rainfall in West Bengal from 1901 to 2020. Various probability distributions, including Gamma, Generalized Extreme Value, Weibull, and Log-Normal, were fitted to the data at the district scale. Among these, the Weibull distribution emerged as the best-fit model, effectively capturing rainfall patterns in 94% of districts, as indicated by p-values greater than 0.05. Furthermore, categorical rainfall forecasting (above normal, normal, and below normal) based on the Weibull distribution demonstrated high accuracy, exceeding 85% for all districts except Darjeeling. These findings highlight the suitability of the Weibull distribution for district-level rainfall forecasting in West Bengal, offering valuable insights for agricultural planning and climate risk management.
Pages: 148-156 | Views: 105 | Downloads: 64
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How to cite this article:
Upendra Kumar Sahoo and Tirthankar Ghosh. Forecasting regional level rainfall of West Bengal. Journal of Mathematical Problems, Equations and Statistics. 2025; 6(1): 148-156.
