2025, Vol. 6, Issue 1, Part A
Analysis of trends in the area, production and productivity of groundnut concerning climate change
Author(s): Sujatha P, Anandhi S and Subangi MC
Abstract: Oilseed crops play a significant role in the agricultural economy and only to cereals in the field crops segment. While the "Yellow Revolution" of the early 1990s initially led to self-sufficiency in oilseeds, it was not sustained for long. Given the rapid and unpredictable price changes in oilseeds, farmers need reliable forecasts of harvest-period prices to make informed decisions about groundnut acreage. Accurate crop yield forecasting and crop acreage estimation are essential for effective planning and policymaking in the agriculture sector. This study presents a model for forecasting the area, production, and productivity of groundnut and gingelly in Tamil Nadu. Utilizing data from 2000-01 to 2022-23, time series methods, including Auto Correlation Function (ACF) and Partial Auto Correlation Function (PACF), were employed for analysis. Furthermore, an appropriate Box-Jenkins Auto-Regressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) model was fitted and tested using standard statistical techniques. The forecasting of area, production, and productivity employed ARIMA (0, 1, 2), (0, 1, 1), and (0, 1, 1) models, respectively, to predict the next five years. The forecasts for the following seven years have been made.
Pages: 51-55 | Views: 106 | Downloads: 46
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How to cite this article:
Sujatha P, Anandhi S and Subangi MC. Analysis of trends in the area, production and productivity of groundnut concerning climate change. Journal of Mathematical Problems, Equations and Statistics. 2025; 6(1): 51-55.
